Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
