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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your squad in our pre-campaign predictions.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the largest improvement is handed the prize. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent leadership or just the most shocking upset.

But this year's competition is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent division winners fading and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an normal season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in this wild and thrilling season, he's facing five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack designed solely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has thrived. And when openings weren't available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a typical year!

The area where his case runs slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a given following his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen hired newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

After an initial strong start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The results are clear. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only one place ahead of peers.

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